Cranes Software - Update - Cranes Software’s Q3 FY08 Consolidated Revenues up 47% PAT Higher by 39%

Q3 FY08 (October – December 2007) v/s Q3 FY07 (October – December 2006)

Total income increased by 47%
Overseas revenues were up 55%
Domestic revenues rose 10%
Operating profit improved by 41%
Operating margin was at 55% during the quarter.
Net profit after tax grew by 39%
Dluted EPS of Rs. 2.44 as against Rs. 1.82.

Link to the entire article: http://www.businesswireindia.com/PressRelease.asp?b2mid=14971

IVRCL - Update - IVR Prime Results

IVR Prime came out with good results for the quarter ending December 2007. IVRCL holds 60% plus stake in IVR Prime. IVR Prime net profit from than 20 times compared to December 2006.

Link to Articles: http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/newsPopup.php?fileR=20080131133434130&dir=2008/01/31&secID=livenews
http://www.equitybulls.com/admin/news2006/news_det.asp?id=25005

Articles - Overseas hydel firms look to tap potential in India - livemint

The government plans to set up 16,553MW of hydropower capacity in the five years to 2012, and another 30,000MW in the five years to 2017.

Companies from Russia, Scandinavia and France are looking to form joint ventures (JVs) with Indian firms to set up hydroelectric power projects in India, a business in which the country is just beginning to tap some of its considerable potential.

Link to the entire article: http://www.livemint.com/2008/01/31000150/Overseas-hydel-firms-look-to-t.html

IVRCL - Update - Minjur desalination plant to be operational by August

The first phase of the project to supply about 15 mld of water will be completed by mid-May

65% of the work has been completed so far. 90 per cent of the work on intake tower to draw sea water had been completed. Nearly 237 mld of raw water would be used to generate 100 mld of drinking water at the cost of Rs. 48.66 per kilo litre. About 75 per cent of the civil work for setting up the reverse osmosis unit, an important component in desalinating sea water, has been finished.
About 40 per cent of the pipeline-laying work worth Rs.93 crore has been completed.

Link to the entire article: http://www.hindu.com/2008/01/31/stories/2008013158400300.htm

Subex - Kotak - Update

SUBEX AZURE LIMITED (SUBEX) PRICE : RS.278 RECOMMENDATION : REDUCE
TARGET PRICE : RS.313 FY09E PE : 13X

The Q3FY08 results of Subex Azure were below our expectations. Product revenues failed to match up to our estimates. There was a direct impact on net profits, resulting into a net loss for the second successive quarter. New order bookings were along expected lines. Cost rationalization is almost complete and so is the Syndesis integration. We are introducing our FY09 earnings estimates with an expected EPS of Rs.21. The DCF-based price target is Rs.313. We recommend REDUCE on Subex due to consistent disappointments, uncertainty over the US economy and limited upsides from current levels.

Simplex Infrastructure - Article - Economic Times

Motilal has give a target of Rs.929 for simplex infrastructure. It is currently trading at Rs.678. That is an upside of 37 percent.

Link to the entire article: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/News__Views/Motilal_posts_buy_on_Simplex_Infrastructure/articleshow/2740891.cms

IVRCL - Update - IVRCL to bid for non-metro airports

IVRCL is looking to bid for airport development projects in small cities and towns, joining a growing list of firms wanting to tap the aviation boom in the country. The company has already made a beginning with a bid to develop the Amritsar airport.

IVRCL has built the passenger terminals at the existing airports at Hyderabad and Bangalore in the past decade (new airports in both cities are due to open shortly).

The company has also bid to build new passenger terminals at the Chennai and Kolkata airports, said Reddy.

Link to the entire article: http://www.livemint.com/2008/01/28225831/IVRCL-to-bid-for-nonmetro-air.html

Kotak's Top - Stock Recommendations

Stock Recommendations

Company Target Price CMP Potential Upside
Strides Arcolab 400 183 118.40
Zensar Technologies 284 135 110.14
NIIT Technologies 307 152 101.97

Value investing good option in volatile market - Article - Economic Times

This article talks about value investing and cites example from India stock market. So the PE multiple or dividend yeilds mentions in this article are stirctly applicable to Indian stock markets only. But the investment strategy can be applied to any stock market in the world.

People who have invested in high dividend-yield stocks have less to fear, particularly when the tide turns against equities. Mangal Keshav Securities’ institutional equities head Jay Prakash Sinha said “Good dividend-yield stocks are out of favour as their number is going down. Traditionally, a yield of over 7% is considered good”.

Benjamin Graham, who is generally considered as the father of value investing, included this yield as an important part of his rules. ‘The investor is best off concentrating on the real life performance of his companies and receiving dividends,’ was his view.

Link to the entire article: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_Analysis/Value_investing_good_option_in_volatile_market/articleshow/2717428.cms

66 stocks dropped over 50% in two-day market meltdown - Article - Economic Times

This article is about 66 stocks that dropped more than 50% of their value compare to their 52 week high in this market meltdown. It is very rare that the value and fundamentals of the companies to change in a few days to an extent of 50 percent. These stock could be good bet for constrainian investment and value picks. Do your know analysis and pick some good companies with quality management. 24 stocks fell by more than 60%. It might be a good time to buy some of the well managed company's stocks that are at 52 week lows.

Link to the entire article: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_Analysis/66_stocks_dropped_over_50_in_two-day_market_meltdown/articleshow/2734498.cms

India not vulnerable to US recession - Article - Economic Times

There was an article today in economic times explaining why India is not vulnerable to US recession unlike South Korea and Singapore. This article was based on a report by the international credit rating agency Standard and Poor's. The countries that were mentioned to be vulnerable to US recession are Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. The countries that were mentioned to be moderately vulnerable are Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Sri Lanka.

Link to the entire article: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Economy/India_not_vulnerable_to_US_recession/articleshow/2738253.cms

Top picks of experts

With recent drop in the share prices in the Indian Stock market, experts feel it is the right time to invest in stocks.

"We believe that one should play big in banking & financial services and capital goods & engineering services sectors as they have now come to very reasonable levels and provide compelling investment opportunities. If you look at such 6 sigma events in the past due to technical factors, the market has provided great investment opportunities. This is the right time to invest and one can expect 30-40 per cent returns, may be more, in next three to six months," said Vikas Khemani, co-head of institutional equities, Edelweiss Capital.

Amitabh Chakraborty, President-Equity, Religare Securities, said: "We believe the market is trying to find a bottom. The exogenous factor, such as US recession has in general caused risk aversion, so a few FIIs , especially hedge funds have sold. Additionally some large proprietory book players had to liquidate their position, not only in India but across Asia."
"India has been the best performing market until now, naturally in a liquidity squeeze back home, these pop book have turned sellers. We believe this week market will stabilize, and if volatility gets reduced, slowly market will recover, as the refund money from Reliance Power issue comes back to the system and the market builds on budget expectation in February," he added.
"There is no direct impact as banks in India are not exposed to CDOs with sub prime assets. However, India is exposed to global risk aversion because of anticipated deep recession in the US. Much of industrial growth last year was due to easy capital, mostly from the private equity and FCCB or through the QIP route. If that flow tapers off, as risk become costly, then India's growth story might come under risk., at least over a medium to long term perspective."
"We have advised our clients to adopt a wait and watch policy as there has been no change in fundamental macro story. If investors are holding sound micro story, they should avoid selling, as n our opinion this is not the right time to get out."
"As the market has fallen so much, recovery will be led by the blue chips. We believe Reliance Industries ,L&T, ABB, SAIL ,SBI offer value, purely from price performance point of view. We like HDIL, KS Oil, HCC, MRPL, Opto Circuit and Punj Lloyd in the mid-cap space."

Shahina Mukadam, head research, IDBI Capital, said: "The Profit booking and selling by FII's in the last couple of sessions has been a major factor in the sharp market correction. The markets recovered post lunch with support from the domestic institutions and mutual funds and we expect that the markets will stabilise at the current levels."
"The impact of the US subprime crisis on the financial sector is having its ripples across the world and selling is happening across global markets. Investors should start investing if not already doing so in the markets at the current levels and should buy fundamentally strong companies."

VALUE PICKS FROM EXPERTS (Stock are in alphabetical order)

Aban Offshore
BHEL
DLF
GMR Infrastructure
HDIL
ICICI Bank
Indian Overseas Bank
ITC
Jaiprakash Associates
JSW Steel
Lanco Infratech
Larsen & Toubro
NTPC
Oriental Bank of Commerce
Patel Engineering
Power Grid Corporation
Punjab National Bank
Reliance Communications
Reliance Industries
Tata Motors
Voltas

Panacea Biotec - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Panacea biotec is one of the leading biotechnology companies in India. It is the third largest biotechnology companies in terms of revenue and second largest vaccines producer in India. The company is big supplier for polio vaccines to the government of India. It also qualified supplier for vaccines to the WHO for Easy four and couple of other vaccines. The company also has strong pipeline for vaccinies such as Anthrax vaccine. The company has 5 R&D centers and have a few world wide product patents. The companies revenues are highly dependent of polio vaccinies. The company is looking into ways to mitigate this risk and also the risk of foreign currency fluctuations. The company does not have a strong presence in the international markets and looking to ways of strengthening it, one of the options the company is pursuing is acquition of a foreign company.

Some of the recommendations

Emkay
CMP Rs 414 Target Rs 536 12 months January 07 2008

Emkay
CMP Rs 385 Target Rs 536 12 months July 26 2007

Asit C Mehta
CMP Rs 458 Target Rs 554 12 months June 18 2007

Kotak
CMP Rs 425 Target Rs 512 12 months June 15 2007

Quantam Information
CMP Rs 478 Target Rs 675 12 months February 21 2007

Jaiprakash Associates - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Jaiprakash Associates is the flag ship company of the Delhi base Jaypee group. It is a very good representation of the Indian infrastructure sector. It is a well diversified company. Even though it look expensive from a PE valuation stand point. It has huge assets that justifies the price and also the earning would grow in the future as some of the project start generating cash flows. The company is into cement manufacturing and is in the process of expanding the capacity in a huge manner. After the planned expansion the company would be in the top five cement producers of the country. Foray into steel manufacturing is on cards and work with respect to the steel plant is in progress. The company has 2 function hydro electric plants, 1 under construction and 4 more to be built under BOOT. The company is also in the process of setting up thermal power plants. The companies construction business unit is one of the largest builders of dams in India. The companies also has some huge road projects on BOOT basis. The company has a few thousands of acres near Nodia, which is a huge real estate asset in terms of valuations. The strong order book, the projects in process and aggressive management can give rich dividends to the shareholders in the future. Buy and hold the stock for a long time.

Some of the recommendations

Prabhudas Lilladher
CMP Rs 469 Target Rs 430 12 months January 14 2008

India Bulls
CMP Rs 473 Target Hold 12 months January 07 2008

Citi
CMP Rs 379 Target Rs 462 12 months December 19 2007

Emkay
CMP Rs 430 Target Buy 12 months December 17 2007

India Bulls
CMP Rs 255 Target Hold 12 months October 12 2007

IVRCL - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Ivrcl is one of the fastest growing and leading construction companies in India. The company has two subsidiaries IVR Prime and Hind-Dorr both listed on the stock exchange. It has recently acquired the company Alkor Petroo to enter into petroleum exploration. The companies has high growth rates for 40 to 50 percentage even in the past, when the India government was not focused on infrastructure development. The company has a niche in the water based projects. It has a strong order book which guarantees the growth rates for the near future. It has started the foray into the BOOT project which shall give the steady cash flow in the future. The company does not have any major BOOT projects such as airports, ports or power plants. The managerial stake in the company is small, close to 10 percent.

Some of the recommendations

India Bulls
CMP Rs 470 Target Rs 560 12 months December 20 2007

Religare
CMP Rs 460 Target Rs 608 12 months November 30 2007

Citi
CMP Rs 485 Target Rs 602 12 months November 01 2007

Motilal Oswal
CMP Rs 485 Target Buy 12 months November 01 2007

India Bulls
CMP Rs 380 Target Rs 465 12 months September 13 2007

Dwarikesh Sugars - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Dwarikesh sugars is one of the best managed sugar companies in UP. Before getting to the details of the company, lets talk about the Indian sugar industry. The Indian sugar industry in cyclical in nature. The cycle usually lasts for about 5 years. The early 2006 was peak and then began the down cycle, so the peak may be again at the end of the year 2010. Lately the news about this company has been very impressive. One for their plant has the highest recovery in UP of almost 10 plus percentage. It one of the few companies in UP that ended the year 2007 with no cash losses. It also one of the few sugar companies in UP that have cleared all payments to the farmers even before any government intervention. These are certainly some of the outcomes due to good management in place. The company is in an industry that control by the government policy and thats a huge risk. The company also operates in the state of UP which has the highest input cane costs. The company is good company but a long wait is needed to make profits. The company also has manufacture electricity and ethanol as by products of sugar.
Since the sector is out of favor and is in the down cycle not may brokerage firms cover it now. Hence the recommendations below are dated.

Some of the recommendations

Edelweiss
CMP Rs 91 Target Reduce 12 months February 22 2007

Edelweiss
CMP Rs 77 Target Accumulate Reduce 12 months December 01 2006

IDBI
CMP Rs 187 Target Rs 230 12 months May 25 2006

Biocon - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Biocon is the top biotechnology company of India based on the revenues. This is good investment for people who trust and want to take part of the Indian biotechnology story. This will be a high risk and high reward investment. The Biocon has invested heavily on R&D and new drug discovery. Even though the company has very impressive pipeline the success of these molecules will be challenging and failure will be very expensive. Until a couple of these molecules hit the market and become a success nothing can be assured for the company. But then if it happens the company can be give great returns to the investors. The usually business is fairly valued and there would be any huge growth or surprises there. The other positive for this company is it has two subsidiaries into drug discovery and clinical trails out source. These subsidiaries have great growth rates and the growth can continue at least for few more years to come. The company is planning of the listing of one of the subsidiary in the next one year and that can give a huge upside to the stock in terms of valuations.

Some of the recommendations

Religare
CMP Rs 539 Target Rs 654 12 months January 21 2008

Motilal Oswal
CMP Rs 437 Target Buy 12 months January 21 2008

Edelweiss
CMP Rs 540 Target Accumulate 12 months January 17 2008

Citi
CMP Rs 540 Target Rs 501 12 months January 17 2008

Dolat Capital
CMP Rs 570 Target Rs 758 12 months December 05 2007

ICICI Direct
CMP Rs 512 Target Rs 615 6 months October 12 2007

Subex - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Subex is a world leader in the some of its telecom software products. The company has started as a small systems integrator and grew to a company where it is under the management leadership. It primary growth strategy was to acquire companies. It has recently acquired Azure and Syndesis. This a high risk stock and can also give high returns due to high growth rates. The other concern is that the companies management has a low percentage of stake in the company. This a company to watch out for where if everything goes right it could be a world leader in telecom products. But again this comes with high risk.

Some of the recommendations

Kotak
CMP Rs 510 Target Rs 572 12 months September 17 2007

IL&FS
CMP Rs 594 Target Buy 12 months July 27 2007

IL&FS
CMP Rs 643 Target Buy 12 months May 08 2007

Man Financial
CMP Rs 658 Target Rs 872 12 months December 17 2006

SKP
CMP Rs 556 Target Buy 12 months October 25 2006

Wockhardt - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Wockhardt is the leading Indian pharmaceutical company in Europe. It has a past of risk taking initiatives of which some were successful and some were unsuccessful. They acquition strategy for Europe have given them rich dividends in the past. The company is also known for its biotechnology initiatives. The company in the last one year has acquired a few companies in Europe and one in the USA. These companies should add to the companies top and bottom lines in the near future. The company has also approved the demerger of its R&D division.

Some of the recommendations

Motilal Oswal
CMP Rs 420 Target Neutral 12 months November 26 2007

Citi
CMP Rs 382 Target Rs 529 12 months July 25 2007

Karvy
CMP Rs 340 Target Rs 405 12 months February 27 2007

Angel Broking
CMP Rs 391 Target Rs 550 12 months October 26 2006

Alok Industries - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Alok industries is a fully integrated textile company. It supplies to well know companies such as walmart and JC Penney. Lately the stock has be attractive from a value perspective. It has been on the growth path due capacity expansion, backward integration and adding high value products to its product mix. Its foray into retail and real estate has made this stock attractive. One has to hold this stock till the retail and real estate business units are listed.

Some of the recommendations

Citi
CMP Rs 90 Target Rs 121 12 months December 13 2007

Motilal Oswal
CMP Rs 67 Target Neutral 12 months November 02 2007

Motilal Oswal
CMP Rs 63 Target Neutral 12 months August 01 2007

IL&FS
CMP -- Target Buy 12 months May 04 2007

Citi
CMP Rs 61 Target Rs 76 12 months April 30 2007

Edelweiss
CMP Rs 64 Target Buy 12 months April 30 2007

Cranes Software - Stock Recommendation - Buy

Cranes Software is a software product company with good management. It has unique business model of acquire, enhance and expand. The company has demonstrated the successful execution of this process of acquire, enhance and expand with several products it has acquired over the past few year. It has acquire 4 to 5 companies in the past one year and this should start adding to the company profits in a years time. This not a hot or speculate stock but a good growth stock. I expect this stock to have sustainable growth of 20 to 30 percent over a long period of time. This is stock to be held at least for 3 to 5 years for good returns.

Some of the recommendations

Angel Group
CMP Rs 130 Target Rs 150 12 months June 29 2007

Angel Group
CMP Rs 99 Target Rs 135 15 months February 03 2007

Asit C Mehta
CMP Rs 101 Target Rs 130 12 months November 24 2006

Angel Group
CMP Rs 97 Target Rs 125 12 months November 16 2006